How economic growth is calculated

Last year, the thinktank said it calculated that the effect on (GDP) of bank holidays were much lower than the £2.3bn bill estimated in 2012 since the UK had fewer factories that shut for the day, and because lost productivity could be made up elsewhere. … [Read more...] about Extra UK bank holiday in October ‘could boost economy by £500m’

At first, New Delhi struggled to square the circle to make sense of the zeros in the economic stimulus. After unconvincing attempts, there are hints of unused ammunition that can be fired later to counter the trail of destruction that Covid-19 will leave behind. It’s a marathon, not a sprint, as a government adviser reminded — a reassuring message, as long as men and businesses can touch the finishing line with their bodies and souls together. That story, however, is not finding too many takers. There’s outright disbelief among obvious fault-finders as well as scepticism among admirers. The government’s stance, measures and fears have deepened the doubts. Besides the fiscal orthodoxy, the Centre is caught in its professed preference to ‘endowment’ over the Congress legacy of ‘entitlement’ and doles that the ruling party believes to have kept the poor stay poor. So, it bets on ‘atmanirbharta’ even when the house is on fire. … [Read more...] about View: For its own political safety, if not for India’s economy, GoI must fully open the expenditure tap

The central government has planned a fiscal budget deficit of about 3.76 trillion yuan this year. China's deficit-to-GDP ratio is projected at more than 3.6 percent, while the IMF estimated the global average fiscal deficits will more than double to 9.9 percent of GDP this year from 3.7 percent in 2019. … [Read more...] about NDRC backs raising fiscal deficit, issuing special bonds

Beijing: China's exports unexpectedly fell the most in two years in December, while imports also contracted, pointing to further weakness in the world's second-largest economy in 2019 and deteriorating global demand. Adding to policymakers' worries, data on Monday also showed China posted its biggest trade surplus with the United States on record in 2018, which could prompt President Donald Trump to turn up the heat on Beijing in their bitter trade dispute. Softening demand in China is being felt around the world, with slowing sales of goods from iPhones to automobiles, prompting warnings from the likes of Apple and from Jaguar Land Rover, which last week announced sweeping job cuts mostly in Britain. The dismal December trade readings suggest China's economy may have cooled faster than expected late in the year, despite a slew of growth-boosting measures in recent months ranging from higher infrastructure spending to tax cuts. Some analysts had already speculated that Beijing … [Read more...] about China’s exports shrink most in 2 years, raising risks to global economy