Trump speaks, and MAGA folk fall silent when the pollster calls. Photo: Isaac Brekken/Getty Images Last month, Nate Silver of FiveThirtyEight did an analysis of polling errors in the 2020 election cycle, and I discussed it along with related data at some length. Now comes an interesting report from a group of five major Democratic pollsters that confirms much of what Nate had to say, while offering one new theory I find fascinating: that like voting by mail, poll response in 2020 may have been significantly skewed by Donald Trump's disinformation. To be clear, the pollsters issuing this report are campaign pollsters, not the media-sponsored outfits whose data FiveThirtyEight (and political writers) typically consumes. These are people whose findings guided, and apparently misguided, actual candidates; it says a lot for them that they are engaged in this very public self-critique, but it also shows that 2020 polling errors really were systemic, and really did (on average) show Democrats from Joe Biden on down doing better than the actual results indicated. And that was despite efforts to address similar errors in 2016, per the report: Following thorough investigation into polling error in 2016, we all adjusted our weighting protocols to ensure… Read full this story
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